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Forex Short Term Recommendations Friday, February 22, 2002

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US Dollar Index, Mar 2002 - Quick FX Updates - Friday, February 22, 2002 (03:45 CET)
US DOLLAR - (03:45 CET) - USD/JPY has been to 134.55 after breach of 134.25. The currency probes important 134.00 support, but looks like another test of 135.00 is on the way. The greenback was little changed against most of the majors, but our near-term bullish view is unchanged. The US dollar should resume the uptrend next week. AUD/USD did fell to .5130 after all. A small base is forming, and the uptrend should resume thereafter. USD/CAD remains in the middle of the trading range; it will eventually make a move for the 1.5850/25 downside objectives. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Here are the news and events that are making impact on the foreign exchange markets as of the moment:

- The Australian dollar, little changed, may rise as foreign investors buy the currency on optimism a global economic recovery will boost demand for the nation's raw commodity exports. Business confidence rose to a seven-year high in January and consumers are more confident than at any time in almost three years. Coupled with that, the U.S. Federal Reserve said the world's largest economy is showing signs of recovery. That will bolster global growth and Australia's export earnings.

- The yen may fall against the dollar on expectations anti-deflation proposals Japan's prime minister will announce next week may not do enough to end the nation's recession. Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said the government will unveil plans Wednesday to end 2 1/2-years of deflation. The plan focus on measures to prop up stock prices and hasten the disposal of bank loans that aren't being repaid. He also said the government can't force banks to accept public money. (Bloomberg)

- Shares of telecom and fiber-optic companies continued to fluctuate wildly on credit concerns and poor growth prospects for these sectors. Semiconductors joined telecom and networking issues deep in the minus column following a cautious analyst report on Intel, which belted the chip bellwether. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 106.49 points, or 1.1 percent, to 9,834.68 after rising as much as 88 points at its intraday pinnacle. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 59.33 points, or 3.3 percent, to 1,716.24 while the Nasdaq 100 Index forfeited 60.01 points, or 4.3 percent, to 1,348.25. In the broad market, biotech, financial, retail, consumer and drug stocks faded while the broad market enjoyed respectable gains in oil service, oil, natural gas, airline, defense and gold issues. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 1.6 percent while the Russell 2000 Index of small-capitalization stocks dropped 1.9 percent. (cbs.marketwatch.com)

EUR/USD - (.8701) 04:38 CET - a small sideways trading range between .8730 and .8680 is in effect, but the +continuation pattern+ suggests another go at .8660 - .8650 hypothetical support. Otherwise, no change in view -- we can now say with some certainty that a new downtrend is in effect. We keep the negative short-term view, which we expect to be reafffirmed once .8650 theoretical bear market rally mid-point is taken out.

Medium-term projection: we still feel with some degree of certainty that the EUR/USD will eventually fall towards .8500 - .8400 support area which will be generated by the ascending trendline from the .8225 trough in Oct. 2000. EUR/USD is about to confirm the resumption of the downtrend; we expect break of .8650 to turn the sentiment around. The favored scenario going forward from here on is still a fall to .8500 - .8400 along the outlines of a huge Elliott +triangle+, which requires a decline to .8500 - .8400 sometime in early to mid-March. A subsequent rally back to .9000 completes the triangle pattern.

Recommendations: Hold short (.8740). Keep stoploss a