Завтра

*Vrun*

Очередные измышления врагов

*Vrun*

US DOLLAR - (17:50 CET) - the greenback posted some sharp losses today, as the theme of a stronger recovery in Europe gains traction, and will probably add to losses as the US equity market continues to build on earlier gains. The negative outlook on US equities continue to weigh on the currency, although we saw signs that FX trading dynamics are beginning to decouple from equity related fundamentals. We may see some important US dollar lows later today, especially if the US stock market hits a top as expected.

Against Europe, the greenback will likley approache crucial levels, break of which may alter the trading sentiment. That would be .8850 EUR, 1.6750 CHF, and 1.4300 GBP. USD/JPY also survived a test of the highs and is now poised to probe support at 133.00; allow even for a decline back to 132.00. AUD/USD did extend gains to .5145, but is now showing signs of pulling back -- we still see it lower (at least to .5050). USD/CAD indeed found a top at just inder 1.6100, and may be set for a large correction back to 1.5875.

Here are the news and events that are making impact on the foreign exchange markets as of the moment:

- The Canadian dollar rose and bonds fell after a report Friday showed the country unexpectedly added jobs in January, creating optimism about prospects for economic growth. Canada added 75,900 jobs last month, the biggest increase since November 1994. The dollar gained 0.1 U.S. cent after the report Friday, and investors are buying again today because of the better-than-expected job figures, traders said.

- The Swiss franc, trading at a two-week high against the dollar, extended gains against the unit on continued concern about U.S. corporate accounting methods which hurt investors confidence. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index last week lost 2.3 percent after some companies like Enron Corp. and Tyco International Ltd. overstated their earnings, which fueled speculation the world's largest economy may not recover as fast as expected. (Bloomberg)

- The G7 offered a relatively upbeat assessment on the global economy, noting that "Since we last met, prospects have generally strengthened for resumed expansion in our economies, although risks remain. We remain vigilant and will each continue to take appropriate steps to promote a strong and sustained recovery."

- European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pedro Solbes says the commission remains convinced Germany should be reprimanded about its budget deficit. German government not surprisingly thinks otherwise. (briefing.com)

EUR/USD - (.8791) 17<img src="images/smilies/smile3.gif">5 CET - the currency rose shaprly and broke through .8800 earlier today, and sets the stage for a crucial test of the .8850 level. In my opinion, this is where the trading sentiment for the currency gets reaffirmed or completely reversed (at least for us). Until then however, we will keep the negative short-term view, whic will be reafffirmed once .8650 is taken out (long way to go from here). Minor support at .8760 and firmer equity markets should push the currency to an importnat test of .8850 later in the NY trading day.

There is no change in medium-term projections, at least not just yet. We still feel with some degree of certainty that the EUR/USD will eventually fall towards .8500 - .8400 support area which will be generated by the ascending trendline from the .8225 trough in Oct. 2000. We should see those levels in mid-February. The favored scenario going forward from here on is a fall to .8500 - .8400 along the outlines of a huge Elliott +triangle+, which requires a decline to .8500 - .8400 sometime in late February - early March.

Recommendations: Shorts (.8660) were taken out at .8775 stop. Stand by.

USD/JPY - (133.75) 17<img src="images/smilies/smile3.gif">8 - the currency did find a cap at 135.10 area, and the unit should retest the 133.00 level in the NY trading day; we are still on the lookout for 132.00 tomor