Today:
EUR - PMI and Retail Sales
GBP - PMI
USD - ISM - Non Manufacturing an Bernanke speech !!!
EUR-USD - 200 day ma - 1,2449, 100 dma - 1,2735 and 50 dma - 1,2768, need to close above 50&100 dma to keep bulls alive , earlier commentary still valid,
GBP-USD - GBP-USD - 200 dma - 1,8183, 100 dma - 1,8684 and 50 dma - 1,8870 ( note: 200 ma on 4hour chart is near 1,8880 ) - is possible that BOE will rise rate tommorow by another 25 bps, try to trade from long side till rate decision with tight sl...
USD-CAD - 200 dma - 1,1328, 100 dma - 1,1185 and 50 dma - 1,1189, while above 50 & 100 dma positive outlook, also oil could hurt CAD...
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as I wrote earlier , dont want to trade against usd...
still prefer tarde from long usd side...
EUR-USD – possible 1,2460-80 target , trade from short side, selling area: 1,2575 and 1,2610-15 sl above 1,2640, important for next direction could be FOMC meeting later today….
Currently short from 1,2545…
GBP-USD – range 1,86-1,91 was broken yesterday, trade from short side, even 1,8250 or 1,81 target possible, i took small short when i saw new low today with tight sl, if not hold will try to sell againnear 1,86….
Short 1,8524 ….
USD-JPY – bulls have situation under control , correction possible, prefer strategy buy on dips near 119,25 or 118,85….
No positions…
USD-CAD – bullish above 1,1300-20 for move minimum 1,1400, weaker oil prices should hurt CAD… trade from long side…
No positions…
AUD-USD – aud is relatively strong ahead Stevens speech at 10.05 gmt today, propably clear direction we will see after this… range 0,7410-0,7465…, below 0,7410 possible 0,7350-70 and lower.. waiting for Stevens, watching gold prices…
No positions….
USD-CHF – look to buy on dips 1,2630-50 for 1,2780-2800
New low yesterday at 1,2501 after FOMC , strong bounce back today but at this moment still favor short positions…
Selling area 1,2575-90 and above 1,2610, sl above 1,2640-50 for 1,2460-80,
Important US Trade Balance today….
Currently short from 1,2545…
GBP-USD –
Pair now trying to back above 1,8600-15, next resistance near 1,8635-60 also looks good for short…
Short from 1,8524 was stopped out…
Holding short from 1,8565, will add near 1,8645 sl above 1,8685
USD-JPY-
As I wrote yestrday, correction possible…but still favor long positions… level to buy 119,25-30 or 118,60-85…
USD-CAD-
As I wrote yesterday, bullish for 1,14 while above 1,1320, max today 1,1384, if You’re long try to take profit here at 1,1360 or put sl on entry level…
Fundamental:
The Canadian dollar was down
versus the greenback on Wednesday as another slide in commodity
prices weighed on the currency, which could drift further given
the lack of any key domestic data.
With no key Canadian data due out during the session to
impact the currency, traders seemed content to focus on weaker
commodities, particularly oil and gold, which often move in
line with the Canadian dollar.
The commodity story has been hurting the Canadian dollar
for a while now. What's kept it as high before that is the huge
amount of M&A activity," said Bart Melek, senior economist, at
BMO Capital Markets.
"But I think that's kind of getting washed out of the
market and a lot of the strong commodity-based fundamentals are
weakening."
USD-CHF – look to buy on dips 1,2630-50 for 1,2780-2800
AUD-USD –
Good demand noted this morning for topside Aussie calls after
strong employment data overnight. Traders note stops at $0.7485 and
$0.7495.
200 DMA at 0,7478, now we are above this level…
Bearish below 0,7440-50, bullish above 0,7500, still watching
NZD-CHF-
Current 0,8362 … testing 50% fall from 0,9448 to 0,7375…
200 DMA below 0,81, also good support at 0,8100 ( trendline ), watching…
USD-CZK-
Very interesting situation, long term downtrend-line on daily chart is underpressure, daily close above could be very bullish, on the other hand consolidation 21,7000-22,6000 also possible…
USD-DKK-
Consolidation 5,7500-5,9500, supoort 5,85 then 5,80, also range –break to the upside possible…
USD-HRK –
Look to buy again on dip 5,85-5,86 for minimum 5,94-95…and for 6 and above later..
USD-HUF-
HUF is a stronger than we expected at this moment range-break to the downside possible, watch support near 212,00, speculative traders can to take long here ( 212,50 ) with tight sl below 212 for move minimum 216, daily close below 212, we will have bigger chances for back to 208…
USD-MXN –
Watch support 10,9200-9500, resistance 11,1000, bigger chances at this moment for bears
USD-PLN -
If You are still long, You can take some profits here 3,1215-25 for rest put sl on entry level tp 3,14, look to buy on dips again…or on break to the upside
More details about other currency than majors after weekend
GOOD LUCK and GOOD TRADE
Piotr
az-forex.blogspot.com
Still above 200 DMA, but below 1,2580-2620, important could be ZEW and more important US data…, at this moment till us data propably 1,2485-1,2560-80 range, clear direction we should see after US data, prefer sell on rally…
NOTE :
EUR is also on strong underpressure from GBP and JPY, it also could help usd bulls
GBP-USD –
Potential double-bottom at $1.8520 triggered on a break
above $1.8637 -- targets measured move to $1.8755. However, there are
some key interim resistance levels at $1.8650 Fibonacci levels, the
100-day moving average at $1.8675 & $1.8700 -- 50.0% of US payroll
high to $1.8520 low. The daily slow-stochastics are crossing bullishly.
NOTE: GBP supported from UK DATA
USD-JPY –
Below 119,00, support 118,65, while holds still possible rise twds 120 and higher, below this support next target 118,00…
Try Very small long at 118,65 with sl at 52…
NOTE: Remember Bank Of Russia said yesterday that will start to buy jpy…
EUR-JPY –
Slips through strong tech support at Y149.00 as dollar-yen
stops are triggered. More stops noted down to Y148.80 ; below target 148,30-35
Still holding short positions…
USD-CHF –
While above 1,2660 prefer long positions with sl below 1,2620…
USD-CAD
Important BOC rate decision and commentary after this,
no rate hike and oil prices below 60usd could hurt cad in mid and longer term,
try to very small long on dips at 1,1320 if seen for 1,17 with tight sl ahead rate decision….
AUD-CAD
If You’re long sl move on entry point ahead of BOC rate decision, if position will close re-enter again on dip…
USD-PLN
At this moment still prefer buing on dip ( 3,08 ), important could be us data later today, below 3,08 watch for 3,05, first resistance near 3,14 above target 3,20 and higher, political problems in Poland could help usd bulls…
EUR-PLN
SHS formation on daily, trading below 200 dma, prefer sell on any rally first target 3,75, selling area 3,8870-3,8900 ( back to the line )…
EUR-HUF
Strong support near 270 was taken out, now bears have situation under control while pair is below 200 DMA…( 265,93 ), if we will see daily close below 200 DMA today next possible target even 260…, close above could push pair higher twds 270 but propably it will be only correction ahead of next move down…watching
EUR-CAD
Trdaing above 200 DMA at 1,4104, resistance first at 1,4350 next 1,45, important today BOC rate decision , also watching oil prices, stand aside at this moment….
NOTE: propably bettr to going long GBP-CAD with first target 2,15 and next 2,20 further out.
USD-THB
Usd bulls fighting with 37,400-500 resistance, support start near 37,120, long shoul be open only when we will see daily close above resistance…
USD-CZK
Looking to buy, watch weekly close… buying area 21,900-22,200 or above resistance 22,760
USD-HKD
Support near 7,7850 was taken out, next 7,7778 ( 38,2% Fibo ) and 7,7725 ( 50 % Fibo ) from 7,7510 – 7,7946 up-trend, stand aside, watch all asian currency…
NOTE: maybe better to buy asia vs european , waiting for clear signals…
GOOD LUCK and GOOD TRADE
Piotr
az-forex.blogspot.com
118,00-35 looks like good support, but we need rise past 119,15-20 for possible move towds 120 and higher...
Closed yesterdays long with 11 pips profitЎK
NOTE. longer-term players using Tuesday's dip in New
York to add to dollar longs, Japanese names also noted buyers on this
morning's dip ahead of what is described as key support at Y118.30. This
was the breakout point post US payrolls two weeks ago. Stops are placed
under there ahead of tech support at Y118.00. Japanese stops underneath
ahead of tech support at Y117.45. Good offers are seen at Y118.70/80.
GBP-USD
is on course to completing double-bottom at $1.8520/25
target $1.8755 at $1.8520. However, risks seen skewed on further squeeze
higher to $1.8795/1.8800 -- the 50.0% of $1.8520 to $1.9070 & spike high
US payroll data. The fast 10-day momentum study is showing
bull-divergence signal and daily slow-stochastic recovering from o/sold.
Small long from 1,8710 with tight sl near 1,8680 first target 1,8760ЎK
NOTE: Todays UK data was not good but gbp did not want to fall thats why im long...
EUR-JPY
Low 148,48, possible fall towds 148,30 then 147,80 and 146, resistance start 148,90-149,10 next 149,35-50ЎK
Took profits yesterdy at 148,75, re-entered short at 149,10 for first 148,30, You can try to take short near 148,90-149,10 for 148,30 first targetЎK
USD-CHF
As i wrote yesterday i prefer long positions, but now better to wait for us data and for reaction afterЎK
If You are long exit here at 1,2680 and waitingЎK
USD-CAD
No change in viewЎKbuy on dipsЎK
AUD-CAD
You can take some profits here at 0,8580-85, re-enter new on dips below 0,8500
CAD-JPY
Took part profit from short ( fx news -16.10 ) at 104 for rest sl on entry levelЎK
USD-PLN
IF You are long take some profits here at 3,1100-20, put sl for rest on entry, look to re-buy on dipsЎK
EUR-PLN
Holding short positionЎK
EUR-HUF
No change in viewЎK
USD-HUF
Long with tight sl was stopped out, short was opened after 212 was broken and was closed at 211,80 ( with small profit )ЎK stand aside at this moment , watch todays close, pair back above 212 and rise higher possibleЎK ( 16.10 )
EUR-CAD
No change in viewЎK
GBP-CAD
If You are long from yesterday can take some profits here at 2,1320-30ЎK ( near 100 pips profit ѓє )
USD-THB
No change in viewЎK
USD-CZK
22,200-400 ЎV try to buy on dipsЎK..with tight sl, first target 22,700-800
USD-HKD
Stand asideЎK
EUR-CHF
1,5966 and 1,5964, double top possible on a daily, waiting for confirmation, first good support 1,5850,
maybe smal short near 1,5915-30 for 1,5850-60 with tight sl above 1,5965
GBP-CHF
Up-trend still intact, need close above 2,3773 for move above 2,4000, support 2,3550 then near 2,3350-3400, strategy buy on dip for 2,4000 minimum target,
only move down from current level and daily close below 2,3400 could confirm double top on dailyЎK
USD-MXN
No change in viewЎK
USD-HRK
Missing trade opportunityЎKstand aside at this moment or try to catch small long on dipsЎK
USD-DKK
Break to the upside still possibleЎKwatch daily closeЎK
Good Luck and Good Trade
Piotr
az-forex.blogspot.com
Rsistance from 1,8835 to 70, first support near 1,88 was taken out, next near 1,8760 (bull - trendline ), below this level next support 1,8690-8700, look to sell on rally,
on Friday: first took smal long with +15 pips, ahead of end Fridays session also took short from 1,8830 took profit today early morning at 1,8776-80ЎK
EUR-CHF
23.10.06
Took profit from short on Friday + 60 pips, look to re-open near 1,59 with tight sl tp 1,5850-65ЎK
EUR-PLN
Holding short positionЎK, No change in view at this moment
20.10.06
Tokk some profits here ( 300 pips ѓє ), sl for rest on entry point, target 3,75-76, look to sell on rally also
23.10.06
Holding rest short positionЎK.
More details ? Send email to me...
Good Luck and Good Trade
Piotr
az-forex.blogspot.com
NFP data : The October unemployment rate dipped to its lowest level in over 5-years at 4.4%, with another bout of strong upward revisions to previous months' non-farm payrolls.
EUR-USD
50 dma – 1,2692
100 dma – 1,2706
Strong support – 1,2677
Resistance – 1,2730 then 1,2775-80
Range trading possible, watch daily close…., needs below 1,2675 for strong move down or above 1,2780-1,2800 for strong move up…
GBP-USD
20 dma – 1,8795
50 dma – 1,8838
100 dma – 1,8719
1,9100-45 was tested few times last week, but strong NFP number pushed pair lower below 1,9030 support ( now resistance ), structure is bearish at this moment, 1,8930-35 target possible…
Holding short position…
USD-JPY
20 dma – 118,55
50 dma – 117,77
Strong recovery during Friday’s us session, found resistance 118,15-40, needs to close above this level for move towards 118.80-119,00,
support 117,70-80…
Look to buy on dips if seen…
USD-CHF
Strong move above 1,2500 level suggest that 1,2580-1,2620 could be test soon, watch support at 1,2470-80…
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, earlier commentary still valid,
