[Current Account
(Q2)]
IFR forecasts a current account shortfall of $193 bln in the second quarter compared with the record $195.1 bln seen in the first quarter. The improvement in the trade deficit should have helped to rein in the current account. Still, at an estimated 6.2% of GDP, the deficit is troubling. At this clip it would take net foreign investment of about $65 bln or so on average per month to finance the deficit. The July TIC data is due immediate following this release
(13:00). A net purchase of $65 bln or so is anticipated in July,
down from
$71.2 bln in
June.
[Michigan Sentiment
(pSep)]
IFR expects the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index to fall sharply to 83.0 from 92.7 in August. Hurricane Katrina is likely to weigh on consumer attitudes. While the events are not comparable, the events of September 11, 2001 weighed on the Michigan index. It fell nearly ten points between August and September 2001. The run-up in gas prices following the disruptions to energy supplies will figure prominently this time around, knocking the expectations index sharply lower. This already happened with the IBD/TIPP index. Some recovery is expected in the final survey as gas futures prices have started to ease which should eventually
bring some relief at the
pumps.
[Date Time Release Unit Per IFR EST Median Prev
Low/High ]
16-Sep 12:30 Current Acct Deficit $bn Q-2 193.0 192.5 195.1 190.0
195.0
16-Sep 13:45 Michigan Sentiment Idx pSep 83.0 85.0 92.7
82.0 89.1
Today"s key US event risk is the 13:00GMT disclosure of July TIC data. June inflows: $71.2bn. Pre-TIC: the size of Q2"s US current account deficit will be disclosed at 12:30GMT. Forecast: $193.0bn, from $195.1bn in Q1. Post-TIC: September"s preliminary Michigan Sentiment index will be unveiled at 13:45GMT. Forecast: 85.0, from
89.1 in August.
The MPC"s David Walton is also slated to speak at 13:00GMT.
Walton is the MPC"s newest member (having joined on July 1), and voted for last month"s 25bp UK rate cut (as well as voting for a cut in July). The risk of another UK rate cut has risen on the back of yesterday"s soft UK retail sales figures.
GBP/USD tripped stops above 1.8100 en route to a high of 1.8148 during the Asian session, as it pushed its recovery envelope from yesterday"s two-week low of 1.8037. EUR/USD led GBP/USD higher, as evidenced by EUR/GBP strength. 1.8148+ resistance runs at 1.8160 (Thursday"s Asian session low), 1.8185, and 1.8225 (Wednesday"s NY session floor). Support points are located at 1.8080, 1.8060 (Asian session base), 1.8030, and 1.8000.
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