FOREX - FXwintrades

JAOliveira

Daily comment

Tue 9 Aug 2005

FOMC Day

All and one expects the "measured" .25 bp increase in the interest rate today. So, other than the usual turbulence at data time, that should not influence the eur/usd ratio. Now with the increasing interest differential and the inherent strength of the American economy why would we still be bullish on the euro during this period? Many factors -- independent of each other or intertwined -- govern modern day economy, but we believe that at least in the short run it all boils down to market sentiment. To influence the sentiments of the investors we have the record price of crude oil set yesterday, and there is the trade deficit spook waiting for us on Friday. In addition the euro zone shows signs of recovery, and although the new members do not have the euro yet, the expansion of the European Union towards east will undoubtedly spike the economy -- irrespective of the demise of the Nice Treaty. Unlike what the politicians would like you to believe, disagreement and inability to act on the political scene has never been bad for the economy.

JAOliveira

60 min Matsys T chart with Dynamic Pivots:

JAOliveira

Market comment:

US July Retail Sales data is due at 12:30. Still falling into the summer-sale period, expectations are for a strong 2% growth, the recent slow-down in store sales will only be felt in August’ data. US June Business Inventories are due at the same time as well as the weekly initial Jobless Claims expected to remain around the 312k seen last week.

The strong push higher in EURUSD has still not yet realized. While the pair has pushed for a new high of 1.2420 and continues to trade near the top, we still expect a stronger surge to reach above 1.2500. Meanwhile GBPUSD has pushed ahead to reach the 1.8000 level. This first target achieved, there is some risk of a short-tem dip as profits are taken. For now, stick with long positions, expect to rise to 1.8080 on the day. There is a short-term support at 1.7960, pivot for a possible fall to underlying trend support at 1.7890.

JAOliveira

Dynamic Pivots

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2461 1.7934 1.2703
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.7866 1.2643
Pivot Point
1.2353 1.7818 1.2578
Matsys Support
1.2301 1.7753 1.2521
Average True Range Low Band
1.2276 1.7701 1.2462

MACD - slow-fast-smooth

EUR/USD
07-13-08

GBP/USD
10-17-07

USD/CHF
08-11-06

JAOliveira

Daily trades:

08/10 14:03 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2548 1.2565 08/10 14:48 -17
08/10 14:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2398 1.2383 08/10 14:56 -15
08/10 19:00 EUR/USD BUY 1.2376 1.2378 1.2380 08/10 23:54 4

Daily result on Matsys T (2 lots): -56 pips

08/11 01:21 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2541 1.2534 08/11 04:39 7
08/11 05:32 GBP/USD BUY 1.8000 1.7983 08/11 05:36 -17
08/11 05:54 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7974 1.7975 08/11 06:56 -1
08/11 05:54 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2396 1.2403 08/11 07:07 -7
08/11 05:55 USD/CHF BUY 1.2544 1.2540 08/11 07:08 -4
08/11 07:09 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2535 1.2518 08/11 08:33 17
08/11 07:10 GBP/USD BUY 1.7995 1.8025 08/11 09:23 30
08/11 08:00 EUR/USD BUY 1.2424 1.2409 08/11 12:12 -15

Daily result on Matsys T (2 lots): +6 pips

JAOliveira

Dynamic Pivots

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2461 1.7934 1.2703
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.7866 1.2643
Pivot Point
1.2353 1.7818 1.2578
Matsys Support
1.2301 1.7753 1.2521
Average True Range Low Band
1.2276 1.7701 1.2462

Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer

MACD - slow-fast-smooth

EUR/USD
07-13-08

GBP/USD
10-17-07

USD/CHF
08-11-06

JAOliveira

EMA Opt system , Real time (Test ) 8/11/05
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 5-16 9-21 10-18

MACD Optimizer, Real time 8/11/05
PAIRS EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF
SIGNALS 5-11-5 8-7-3 9-12-7

DYNAMIC PIVOTS, Real time 8/11/05
PAIRS ATR LB MS PIVOT MR AT HB
EUR/USD 12377 12406 12441 12504 12559
GBP/USD 18031 18065 18178 18227 18261
USD/CHF 12345 12371 12413 12493 12577

SHORT TERM BREAK POINTS 8/11/05
PAIRS SUPPORT BREAK POINTS RESISTANCE BREAK POINTS
EUR/USD 12411 12504
GBP/USD 18031 18227
USD/CHF 12371 12512

JAOliveira

Daily Comment

Thu 11 Aug 2005 Evening (gmt)

Correction or Trend?

The euro turned on a steeper upward slope yesterday afternoon. Was
this in anticipation of negative news for the greenbag - retail sales
today, trade unbalance, consumer confidence, etc, tomorrow?
Expectations about these data probably accelerated the retracement
which has been with us for more than a month now. The upward momentum
was steady, but it lacked the bursts which we like to see to make
Matsys-T hold the positions. Matsys-T triggers on level breakthrough,
but if the breakthrough is not confirmed within a certain time,
safety mechanisms take effect to limit losses. This happend several
times in the past 24 hours resulting in premature closings of the
positions, and all we got for the effort was a few measly pips. We
will work on tuning Matsys-T to give more slack, but first we would
like to see the upward movements of the euro confirmed as a trend.
Three daily closes above 1.2500 -- the 50% level in the retracement --
might do it. However, if the trend is not confirmed, Elliot Wawe
soothsayers will call this the fourth wave, and they will expect the
fifth wave to hit rock bottom. We are not fortune tellers, but we
don't believe that is a likely scenario.

JAOliveira

Into Europe and further stabs

Support at 1.2450 based the decline yesterday and overnight bids at the
price continued to hold the focus. Into Europe and further stabs lower
have been noted but with the USD looking resolute ahead of the trade
data the Franc has not managed to make any significant headway. Talk is
of buyers lined up back to 1.2400 with decent stops below, while offers
are seen up at 1.2470/75. US data today will be key to deriving the
short-term direction going into the weekend as US structural issues are
back on the agenda. Thus the trade data (12:30 GMT) will be scrutinized
for reasons to sell the USD. A number close to USD57/58Bn is the
current consensus compared with the previous USD55.35Bn number. Any
number below USD55Bn will have [USD/CHF] looking to bounce with 1.2500
offers likely to initially prove a stalling point. Above, 1.2620 is key
to any US unit reversal as it is a double-day high (Aug 9th/10th) and
the 38.2% fibo of the 1.3060 to 1.2435 move also resides at 1.2622. On
the M&A front Swiss private bank Julius Baer today announced that it
needs foreign "acquisitions" to become a leading Swss private
institution.

JAOliveira

Daily Trades:

08/12 00:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8093 1.8102 08/12 02:06 -9
08/12 06:15 GBP/USD BUY 1.8103 1.8152 08/12 09:58 49
08/12 12:47 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2447 1.2418 08/12 12:49 29

Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): + 138 pips

JAOliveira

Dynamic Pivots

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2451 1.8165 1.2617
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.8118 1.2576
Pivot Point
1.2361 1.8076 1.2511
Matsys Support
1.2348 1.8033 1.2488
Average True Range Low Band
1.2311 1.7988 1.2444

Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer

MACD - slow-fast-smooth

EUR/USD
07-03-06

GBP/USD
10-08-12

USD/CHF
09-07-04

JAOliveira

Daily trades:

08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382(Add Lot) 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32
08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121(Add Lot) 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28
08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521(Add Lot) 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39
08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12
08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5
08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6
08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19

Daily results on Matsys T: +292 pips

JAOliveira

Dynamic Pivots

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2436 1.8179 1.2646
Matsys Resistance
1.2384 1.8133 1.2588
Pivot Point
1.2333 1.8074 1.2541
Matsys Support
1.2312 1.8028 1.2482
Average True Range Low Band
1.2282 1.7983 1.2449

Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer

MACD - slow-fast-smooth

EUR/USD
07-03-06

GBP/USD
10-08-12

USD/CHF
09-07-04

JAOliveira

[b:a5bcd6167a] Daily trades:[/b:a5bcd6167a]

08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9
08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9
08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21
08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3
08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23
08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32

[b:a5bcd6167a] Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +146 pips[/b:a5bcd6167a]

JAOliveira

Daily Trades:

08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19

08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7

08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13

08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28

08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8

08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2

08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22

08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2

08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7

Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +16 pips

JAOliveira

[u:1812b5e3d7]Some explanation about our signals[/u:1812b5e3d7]:

[b:1812b5e3d7]MATSYS-R or Reversal Triggers[/b:1812b5e3d7]

This is a Reversal System, is a Trading System that we normally don’t use, because we only use the normal system, like with Stop Loss (SL) and Target Price (TP), but with MATSYS-R we don't use SL, because we are always in trading, how? (http://www.fxwintrades.com/m-space/page1517a.html) Usage guidelines.

For example, we Buy 1 lot at 1.2848, and don't put SL and we only wait for the next new signal, always one Short signal after one Long (buy), and this signal comes, we will Short 2 lots, so this way we will stay with one lot always, and wait again for new signal, in this case, will be again one Long.

Example:

Buy 1 lot - Sell 2 lots - Buy 2 lots - Sell 2 lots and at 21:00 GMT (or before) we close all signals.

[b:1812b5e3d7]MATSYS-T or Trend Following [/b:1812b5e3d7]

This is the Trend Following, is the Trading System with a Stop Loss, but never with Target Price. We think that is a interest Trading System, is easy to use, and we only change SL to protect our position, until the Sell or Cover signal come to close our position. http://www.fxwintrades.com/1003.htm

Example:

GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.8452 STOP LOSS AT 1.8481

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8432

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8426

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8421

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8418

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8409

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8400

GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8394

GBP/USD: COVER AT 1.8378 (Closed)