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US DOLLAR - (04:21 CET) - the greenback recovered in Asia in the wake of US equity gains in NY. In fact, we may have seen some important US dollar lows last night; we will come back to this theme again later in the day, if the US currency does not make a move towards certain crucial levels, break of which may alter the trading sentiment. That would be .8850 EUR, 1.6750 CHF, and 1.4300 GBP.

USD/JPY also survived a test of the highs and is now poised to probe support at 133.00; allow even for a decline to as low as 132.00. AUD/USD earlier extended gains to .5145, but is now showing signs of pulling back -- we still see it lower (at least to .5050). USD/CAD indeed found a top at just inder 1.6100, and may be set for a large correction back to 1.5875.

Here are the news and events that are making impact on the foreign exchange markets as of the moment:

- The yen, little changed, may extend yesterday's gain on expectations the government at a meeting today will compile measures to stop falling prices and bolster the nation's financial system. Japan's Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa, at meetings over the weekend in Ottawa, told his counterparts in the Group of Seven industrialized nations Japan aims to end 2 1/2 years of deflation. Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said Japanese officials vowed to take steps to remedy the country's debt-ridden banking system.

- The Australian dollar fell for the first day in four, on concern an expected global economic recovery may not happen as soon as anticipated, curbing demand for Australian exports and the currency to buy them. Concerns of slackening growth were raised by Boston Federal Reserve President, Cathy Minehan, who said that a recovery in the U.S. economy may be slower, as consumer spending and financial market uncertainty dampens economic activity. That's weighing on the Australian dollar, analysts said.

- The Canadian dollar rose to its highest in more than a week after a report Friday showed the country unexpectedly added jobs in January, creating optimism about prospects for economic growth. Bonds fell. Canada added 75,900 jobs last month, the biggest increase since November 1994. The dollar gained 0.1 U.S. cent after the report Friday, and investors are buying again today because of the better-than-expected job figures, traders said. (Bloomberg)

- Nikkei up 2.3% at 9911.82 midday; market broadly higher after strong gains in U.S., but looking top-heavy after topping key 9900 (and 10000 likely hard to break). Players awaiting details of government's anti-deflation measures, possible reform steps before U.S. President Bush's visit next week; "investors aren't moving on the anti-deflation package until they know what's in it," says trader. Topix up 2.6% at 974.72. (Dow-Jones)

EUR/USD - (.8772) 04:35 CET - the currency pulled back from .8808 highs, and may yet set the stage for a crucial test of the .8850 level, if .8750 continues to hold. In my opinion, this is where the trading sentiment for the currency gets reaffirmed or completely reversed (at least for us). Until then however, we will keep the negative short-term view, which will be reafffirmed once .8650 is taken out (long way to go from here). Minor support at .8760 and firmer equity markets should push the currency to an importnat test of .8850 later in the NY trading day.

There is no change in medium-term projections, at least not just yet. We still feel with some degree of certainty that the EUR/USD will eventually fall towards .8500 - .8400 support area which will be generated by the ascending trendline from the .8225 trough in Oct. 2000. We should see those levels in mid-February. The favored scenario going forward from here on is a fall to .8500 - .8400 along the outlines of a huge Elliott +triangle+, which requires a decline to .8500 - .8400 sometime in late February - early March.

Recommendations: Sell at .8850. Initial stoploss: .8970. Trading objective: .8500.

carryonjutta

The Canadian dollar rose to its highest in more than a week after a report Friday showed the country unexpectedly added jobs in January, creating optimism about prospects for economic growth. Bonds fell. Canada added 75,900 jobs last month, the biggest increase since November 1994. The dollar gained 0.1 U.S. cent after the report Friday, and investors are buying again today because of the better-than-expected job figures, traders said.

richare

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